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Demographic Trends and Projections of Higher Education Enrolments

Publication |
2011

Abstract

In recent years the dynamics of quantitative development of higher education in the Czech Republic has been the highest one of all developed countries in the world. Today, more than 60 % of the age cohort enters higher education institutions, further 7 % enrol in higher professional schools which represent the lower tier of tertiary education.

Such a steep increase in the number of students corresponds neither to economic situation nor to the capability of higher education to adapt to new needs, namely to have an adequate offer for each of a wide range of students, having a far more diverse family background and personal experience, motivation and aptitude for study, career aspirations and aims what to achieve in life. Moreover, due to a demographic decline far weaker age cohorts will reach the age of 19-21 years in the middle of this decade.

Even if the number of those enrolled in tertiary education will stagnate, their proportion in 2015 will significantly close to 90 % of the corresponding age cohort. Without doubt such a development is not very rational as it has a negative impact on the quality of education provided and of certificates awarded.

There is need to decrease the number of students steeply, and moderate decrease of the proportion of enrolled students will suffice as it does in other developed countries; it is necessary, however, to find a consensus how to cope with the envisaged demographic decline in the absolute number of students. As experience of other countries has shown, the inflation of higher education can be prevented by deep structural and institutional reforms; however, they have not been carried out yet in this country.

Therefore, Czech higher education policy should focus much more on increasing quality together with diversity instead on increasing quantity while maintaining uniformity.