Abstract
Text provides an analyses of key political, demographic and economic factors at the state as well as provincial level which will heavily impact voting behavior and preferences during at fifth parliamentary (and provincial) elections next year. The most interesting questions about the following parliamentary elections are not concerned with who will win but with such questions as capability the political parties – Joseph Malema´s far-left Economic Freedom Party, centrist Agang and the main opposition party Democratic Aliance (DA) to challenge the African National Congress’ (ANC) predominant position in the political system of Republic of South Africa and its aim to gain a constitutional majority in The National Assembly.
ANC is also close to electoral defeat by DA in the far most important province Gauteng, which is the political as well as the economic center of the state. The aim of the text is to analyze possible changes in voting patterns which might lead to crossing the political line still based on the racial cleavage.
Political and economic destabilization of the Republic of South Africa would lead to broader regional destabilization.