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Several methods of accuracy evaluation of population forecasts

Publication at Faculty of Science, First Faculty of Medicine, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics |
2009

Abstract

Population forecasts are becoming a still more and more important instrument in the sphere of planning and preparing future concepts. Nowadays there exist various population forecasts for the Czech Republic.

At least some basic evaluation of their accuracy can help to the potential user to find the proper forecast for their purpose. In this article some basic evaluation methods are introduced – the Keyfitz`s “Quality of Prediction Index“, the average Keyfitz`s “Quality of Prediction Index“ (with some modification), the Theil`s index U and a evaluation method based on the principle of APC models.

Not only methods are introduced in a theoretical way but also some basic results of the accuracy evaluation of the forecasts for the Czech Republic are mentioned.