How the Household Structure Will Change in Aging Post-Communist Countries in the Future Decades? Case Study for the Czech Republic
Abstract
he main objective of the article is to examine changes in household structure in the Czech Republic for the period 2013-2040. Considering a new methodology in population census, the projection by household size and type focuses on housekeeping households.
Besides the development trends in household structure, the projection methodology is discussed. Two approaches are applied.
While the first approach is fully deterministic utilizing headship rates, the second approach is probabilistic obtaining the uncertainty in future distribution from data at the regional level. Main data sources are Czech Population and Housing Census held in 2011 and the Population projection for the Czech Republic 2013-2100.
The preliminary results of deterministic projection in medium variant show the increase in number of one-person households in a given period due to change in age-structure of the population and changing life style. Furthermore, increase in number of one-couple families and in one-parent families is also expected.