Observed Changes in Air Temperature Mean and Interannual Variability over Europe and Their Representation in RCM ALADIN-Climate/CZ Simulations
Abstract
Today changes in global mean air temperature are observed, but the changes in temperature variability are less clear. However, both of them influence occurrence of temperature extremes and could have great socio-economic impacts in the future.
Therefore, observed changes in seasonal mean air temperature and its variability over Europe during the period 1961-2010 with distinguishing between intrinsic and trend-induced variability are investigated using dataset E-OBS version 7. Plots combining standardized Mean and Standard Deviation change (MSC plots) are used to illustrate changes in both parameters simultaneously.
Also the differences among examined changes in eight selected regions in Europe are studied. In addition, the representation of these changes in two simulations of RCM ALADINClimate/CZ and driving simulation of GCM ARPEGE-Climate is evaluated.
Statistically significant changes during the period 1961-2010 were found in mean air temperature for spring and summer seasons and in air temperature variability for summer. However, the strong deficiency was found in the ability of ALADIN-Climate/CZ and ARPÉGE-Climat simulations to represent observed changes in both parameters in summer season.