Abstrakt
We evaluate simulation of Central European heat waves and analyse possible changes of their characteristics in a future climate using Aladin-Climate/CZ regional climate model with 25 km horizontal grid spacing. Lateral boundary conditions are provided by the ARPEGE global climate model, using historical forcing and SRES A1B scenario.
Observed data is taken from the E-OBS gridded data set. Heat waves are evaluated in the 19701999 period and changes in their characteristics are assessed for 20202049.
Their definition is based on exceedance of the 90th percentile of summer daily maximum temperature calculated separately for modelled and observed data. Aladin-Climate/CZ simulates characteristics for the recent climate quite well, especially the overall severity of heat waves.
By contrast, their temperature amplitude is considerably overestimated. The model projects an increase of heat waves overall severity by a factor of 2 to 3 in the future climate, which is primarily driven by the increment of the number of events.
The study shows that Aladin-Climate/CZ is generally capable to simulate Central European heat waves, which provides more credibility to the model projections of future heat waves.