Publication at Faculty of Social Sciences |
2013
Abstract
First, we suggest the zones of consensus and zones of conflict within the Arctic geopolitical space and evaluate the overall stability of the given configuration within the context of climate change. Next, we calculate the conflict potential for each Arctic state according to three conflict-related dichotomous parameters: attitude towards conflict, regime type and trade status.
Finally, based on the neoliberal argument on democratic peace, we grade the intergroup buffer areas in terms of the probability of conflict occurrence. The stability of regional geopolitical configuration is found to be dependent on the variation of temperature.