Abstract
This study analyses a large number of regime-change seeking movements, their experiences with state repression, and the outcome of security force defection. Crisp-set Qualitative-Comparative Analysis (csQCA) is utilised to investigate six conditions and set-theoretic associations with defection.
Results reveal that defection is neither sufficiently nor necessarily tied to any single condition. Contrary to theoretical expectations, of the most salient identified solutions, three out of five feature the presence of a violent oppositional campaign.
There exist heterogeneous pathways that can lead to defection and defection has occurred in cases of both violent and nonviolent resistance. While mass nonviolent dissent can spur defection by fostering regime fragility, by providing protesters favourable opportunities to overcome state repression or through persuading security forces to not repress, large violent movements (100,000 or more participants) can also cause defections by directly challenging regime security support pillars.
This analysis offers timely implications for our understanding of the interrelated character of dissent, repression and security force defection.