Abstract
The paper illustrates the significance of policy evaluation in the context sentencing policies. It does so by evaluating the impacts of three sentencing policy changes in the Czech Republic on prison population, using the PRISMOD simulation model.
The first change - a major increase in sentence lengths induced by the new criminal code- increased the prison population by more than 13 percent, implying a fiscal cost of more than 1 billion CZK per year. The second evaluated intervention - a concerted pressure by the Supreme Prosecutor and the Chairman of the Supreme Court to increase the imposition of fines - reduced the prison population by 1.9 percent.
Last, we evaluate a hypothetical reform that would partially replace parole sentences on repeat offenders with short prison sentences. All examples demonstrate practical usefulness of quantitative policy evaluation in formulating sentencing policy measures.