Empirical threshold of representation : question marks over operational definition of the actual threshold
Abstract
The article deals with concepts of the empirical threshold of representation as proposed by Rein Taagepera and the real threshold as proposed by Tomáš Lebeda. Both empirical and real thresholds are operational methods of the actual threshold.
The empirical threshold indicates the actual share of the vote which a party needs to have a fifty-fifty chance of gaining a seat. The real threshold indicates the minimal actual share of the vote which a party needs to gain representation.
The author of the paper argues that real thresholds serve as an illustration of a hypothetical rather than a real situation and they do not always occur between the upper and the lower thresholds. The second part of the paper analyzes the original and the current electoral systems for the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament.
While under the current electoral system a party with 6.15 per cent of the vote has a fifty-fifty chance of winning a seat within a district, the share was 4.36 per cent of the vote within the original electoral system. On the other hand, the national empirical threshold is lower under the current electoral system.
This is caused by relatively large districts of the original system which are more hospitable to small parties at the district level, but not necessarily from the national perspective.