Abstrakt
In the talk we focus on modelling dissemination and shift of opinions in a population with initial opinion distribution. Such opinions could be related to various topics, e.g., general knowledge, market behaviour, attitude to innovations, experience with a product etc.
In the first part we introduce a model of personal opinion shift that generalises the model in [1]. The two important parameters of the model are closeness of the two opinions and strength of confidence of an advisor, see e.g., [2]. After an information exchange with other member of the population a personal opinion and confidence can shift to a certain extent.
In the second part of the talk we are going to explore various properties of the model by using stochastic agent-based simulations. How much is the model sensitive to initial distribution of opinions and confidences? How do the result change when the perception of "closeness" of opinions shifts? What is the impact of confidence shifts? The applications to real social groups are discussed. Advantages, limitations and further improvements of the model are also discussed.
[1] Mehdi Moussaïd, Juliane E Kämmer, Pantelis P Analytis, and Hansjörg Neth. Social influence and the collective dynamics of opinion formation. PloS one, 8(11):e78433, 2013.
[2] Ilan Yaniv. Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 93(1):1-13, 2004.