Abstrakt
In the context of the 21st century international system, characterized by interdependence and the impact of globalization, the relevance of traditional concepts like isolationism is questioned. This study seeks to explore the presence of isolationist elements within the current foreign policy of the United States, and to evaluate the degree of isolationism across different presidential administrations. To address these inquiries, it is imperative to establish a precise and operational definition of isolationism that can serve as an analytical tool, avoiding the broad categorizations employed by historians throughout history. Despite the continued use of the term, a comprehensive analytical framework for isolationism has yet to be devised. This paper responds to this gap by proposing a novel conceptualization of isolationism and introducing a methodological framework that enables its application as an effective analytical tool for both historical periods and contemporary international politics.
In this study, isolationism is regarded as one potential response employed by presidents and other key decision-makers in addressing sudden foreign policy issues (crises). This response is characterised by non-engagement and non-interventionism in an area of the international system in which the given state has the capacity to act, and - in the case of a threat to the narrowest possible definition of national vital interest (a direct threat to citizens and state security) - by a willingness to unilateral intervention within the limits of so-called minimal realism. The framework applies a set of selection criteria to the International Crisis Behavior database, allowing for the identification of instances in which U.S. administrations pursued isolationist actions within specific crises. By calculating the ratio between the total number of foreign policy crises occurring during each administration's tenure and the number of crises where an isolationist response was chosen, the level of isolationism for individual administrations can be determined. This facilitates a comparative analysis of isolationism across different administrations from the early 20th century to the present day.
The primary objective of this paper is to elucidate the proposed framework and present the new conceptualization of isolationism, aiming to contribute to a deeper understanding of this phenomenon in foreign policy analysis.