Incumbency advantage in the case of Czech mayors: Analysis of election results in the 128 largest Czech cities
Abstract
In the Czech Republic, the position of mayors is one of the most important in the entire political system. Many mayors use their strength to advance to the higher levels of the political system or to defend their office.
The impact of the so-called incumbency effect, a condition where the incumbents have an advantage over their opponents, on the results of elections has long been known. However, it is still a rather marginal part of research, especially in Central Europe.
The Czech Republic is a unique case in terms of its municipal structure, which is very fragmented and because local politics have a huge influence on the highest level of the political system. Also, the electoral system at the municipal level focuses on electoral lists and not individuals.
This paper focuses on the mayors that are able to defend their positions in several consecutive electoral periods. It examines whether we can observe the manifestation of incumbency advantage among Czech mayors and how high this advantage is.
To do so, it uses a database compiled from mayors of the 128 largest cities in the Czech Republic, excluding Prague. It contains electoral data of successful incumbents between 2002 and 2018.
It can be concluded that these mayors have an advantage over their challengers while they are incumbents. This is reflected in the high proportion of cases where mayors defend their post, which happens on average in more than 50 % of cases.
This points to the fact that the incumbency effect is large even though the electoral system is not supportive.