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Testing for changes in polynomial regression

Publication at Faculty of Mathematics and Physics |
2008

Abstract

We consider a nonlinear polynomial regression model in which we wish to test the null hypothesis of structural stability in the regression parameters against the alternative of a break at an unknown time. We derive the extreme value distribution of a maxímum-type test statistic which is asymptotically equivalent to the maximally selected likelihood ratio.

The resulting test is easy to apply and has good size and power, even in small samples.